I’m often told that Trump can beat Hillary, therefore, she should she shouldn’t be the nominee. It’s a good argument, “electability” and all that, but it’s not true. Even slightly. In fact, never mind Hillary, we could nominate a potted plant on the left and Trump would STILL lose.
How can I be so sure? Easy: Trump has to win 70% of the white male vote to become president.
Good fucking luck with that.
White Power? Not so much
I know what you’re thinking: Trump appeals directly to white resentment, how could he not have the angry white male vote totally locked up? Honestly, he probably does. This is something that, as a white male myself, I find incredibly annoying. That more than half of all white males would support such a piece of trash is embarrassing to say the least. But more than half is not the same as 70%.
No one gets 70% of the white male vote. No. One.
That’s a larger percentage than Republicans have ever won before — more than the GOP won in the landslide victories of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and far more than they won during the racially polarized elections of Barack Obama.
Of course, the argument often made by Trump’s followers is that he will win in November because he will bring so many disengaged Americans to the polls. But they’re talking about disengaged white voters, mostly mostly men — and unfortunately for him, the turnout rate for white men is already relatively high.
Got that? Even when White America went completely insane at the idea of a black president, they STILL couldn’t muster more than the 63% Reagan and Poppy Bush took in 1980 and 1988 or the 62% Dubya got in 2004. More importantly, as the country gets less lily white, even that 60%+ is losing its punch:
By 2004, however, winning 62 percent of white men barely got George W. Bush past John Kerry in a squeaker. And eight years later, Romney won 62 percent of white men—and lost to Barack Obama by 3.5 million votes.
So what happened? Between Reagan and Romney, the white male share of the total vote had dropped from 45 percent to 35 percent.
Ironically, the very thing Trump is harnessing to propel his campaign, white resentment at the waning of white supremacy, is what will ensure he can never win. It’s such a thing a beauty that I want to redefine marriage again so I can walk it down the aisle.
If you want a full breakdown of why Trump needs 70% of white men and how women, Latinos and black voters spell his doom, take a look at Politico’s excellent analysis.